What is Econometric Forecasting???????

• Involves  the  application  of  statistical  and  mathematical  models  to  forecast  future developments  in  the  economy.  Econometric  forecasting  allows  economists  to  review past  economic  trends  and  forecast  how  recent  economic  changes  will  alter  the patterns  of  past  trends.

What Are The Advantage of Econometric Forecasting?????

• A  major  advantage  with  econometric  forecasting  is  that  it  explicitly  allows  for  the impact  on  the  forecast  variable  of  changes  in  determining  forces.  The  process involves  estimating  the  quantitative  relationship  between  the  forecast  variable  and explanatory  variables , and  then  inserting  forecasts  of  the  influencing  variables  into  the  estimated  relationship.

COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES

The four components of time series are:

1.Secular trend

2.Seasonal variation

3.Cyclical variation

4.Irregular variation

Secular trend:A time series data may show upward trend or downward trend for a period of years and this may be due to factors like increase in population,change in technological progress ,large scale shift in consumers demands,etc.For example,population increases over a period of time,price increases over a period of years,production of goods on the capital market of the country increases over a period of years.These are the examples of upward trend.The sales of a commodity may decrease over a period of time because of better products coming to the market.This is an example of declining trend or downward trend.The increase or decrease in the movements of a time series is called Secular trend.  

Seasonal variation: Seasonal variation are short-term fluctuation in a time series which occur periodically in a year.This continues to repeat  year after year.The major factors that are responsible for the repetitive pattern of seasonal variations are weather conditions and customs of people.More woollen clothes are sold in winter than in the season of summer .Regardless of the trend we can observe that in each year more ice creams are sold in summer and very little in Winter season.The sales in the departmental stores are more during festive seasons that in the normal days.

Cyclical variations:Cyclical variations are recurrent upward or downward movements in a time series but the period of cycle is greater than a year.Also these variations are not regular as seasonal variation.There are different types of cycles of varying in length and size.The ups and downs in business activities are the effects of cyclical variation.A business cycle showing these oscillatory movements has to pass through four phases-prosperity,recession,depression and recovery.In a business,these four phases are completed by passing one to another  in this order.

Irregular variation: Irregular variations are fluctuations in time series that are short in duration,erratic in nature and follow no regularity in the occurrence pattern.These variations are also referred to as residual variations since by definition they represent what is left out in a time series after trend ,cyclical and seasonal variations.Irregular fluctuations results due to the occurrence of unforeseen events like floods,earthquakes,wars,famines,etc. 

BMW 640i baru

BMW Malaysia Sdn Bhd, yakin dengan pasaran di negara ini dan menjangkakan jualan lebih tinggi tahun ini selepas 4,500 unit keretanya dijual, tahun lalu.

Pengurus Komunikasi Korporatnya, Sashi Ambi berkata, berdasarkan kenaikan 20 peratus dalam jualan pada suku pertama tahun ini, pihaknya percaya mencapai peningkatan jualan terutama menerusi pelancaran model baru BMW.

Katanya, kajian menunjukkan permintaan dan pelancaran kereta baru itu akan membawa jualan syarikat ke tahap lebih tinggi terutama bagi model BMW yang berjumlah 1,100 unit pada suku semasa.

“Strategi kami bagi Malaysia amat khusus. Kami akan berusaha ke arah mencatatkan jualan tinggi bagi tahun ini untuk semua jenama BMW,” katanya selepas melancarkan generasi baru BMW 6 Series Convertible (BMW 640i) di Kuala Lumpur, semalam. Hadir sama, Pengarah Urusannya, Geoff Briscoe dan Pengurus Produk, Kidd Yam.

Model baru BMW itu menggabungkan prestasi sporty dan diperkemaskan dengan keunggulan ciri kemewahan yang tiada tandingan. BMW 6 Series Convertible serba baru akan diperkenalkan dalam satu varian enjin iaitu BMW 640i Convertible yang menampilkan ciri enjin berkuasa 3.0 liter enam silinder.

Sementara itu, Briscoe berkata, model serba baru BMW 6 Series benar-benar memenuhi janji dalam pelbagai sudut, penetapan piawaian dalam segmen dari segi estetika, dinamik pemanduan, kecekapan dan keselesaan.

“Sememangnya tiada yang lebih evokatif dalam reka bentuk automobil daripada convertible yang panjang dan menggambarkan kereta sports berkuasa dengan pilihan bumbung memberikan perjalanan jauh dengan penuh kemewahan dan bergaya,” katanya.

Sejak pengenalan generasi kedua BMW 6 Series pada 2003, BMW Group sudah menjual lebih 50,000 unit kereta yang diidam ramai di seluruh dunia dan sebagai bukti terhadap tahap ketrampilan ciri mewahnya.

Potong kuku mengikut hari

Hari Sabtu	Nescaya keluar dari dalam tubuhnya ubat dan masuk kepadanya penyakit.
Hari Ahad	Nescaya keluar daripadanya kekayaan dan masuk kemiskinan.
Hari Isnin	Nescaya keluar daripadanya gila dan masuk sihat.
Hari Selasa	Nescaya keluar daripadanya sihat dan masuk penyakit.
Hari Rabu	Nescaya keluar daripadanya was-was dan masuk kepadanya kepapaan.
Hari Khamis	Nescaya keluar daripadanya gila dan masuk kepadanya sembuh dari penyakit.
Hari Jumaat	Nescaya keluar dosa-dosanya seperti pada hari dilahirkan oleh ibunya dan masuk kepadanya rahmat daripada Allah Taala.

Khazanah plans to sell healthcare support concessions

KUALA LUMPUR: Khazanah Nasional Bhd plans to sell its healthcare support concessions, valued at around RM150 million, to focus on its core healthcare services business.

It has hired an adviser, believed to be PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), to manage the sale of Pantai Medivest Sdn Bhd, which offers services like laundry to government hospitals and Pantai Fomema Sdn Bhd, which provides foreign worker health checks.

"We are in the process of disposing it. We are in talks with a few parties," said a Khazanah spokesperson. He declined to name the interested parties.

Khazanah wants to focus on its main hospital business which comes under Integrated Healthcare Holdings Sdn Bhd. This unit runs Singapore's Parkway Holdings, the region's biggest hospital operator, Malaysia's Pantai Holdings Bhd, and holds a small stake in Apollo Hospitals, India's biggest hospital chain.

Although the process has been going on for a few years, pricing is the main hurdle for the sale. The fact that the concessions are expiring this year and next also complicates matters.

Pantai Medivest's 15-year concession ends in 2011 while Fomema's contract runs out in 2012.

A search with Companies Commission of Malaysia reveals that in the financial year ended December 31 2008, Pantai Fomema made a profit after tax of RM41.58 million on the back of RM235.87 million revenue.

The company has current assets of RM71.7 million and is free of debt, with reserves of RM58.87 million.

Pantai Medivest made RM207.8 million revenue for 2008 and a profit after tax of RM14.8 million, documents from the commission showed. - By Shahriman Johari

Ringgit's uptrend set to continue

The ringgit is expected to strengthen further against the greenback next week as persistent funds flowed into the country to boost the local unit, dealers said.

The uptrend, seen since last Friday, continued unabated this week as the market reacted positively to a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday which exerted some pressure on the US dollar worldwide.

They said market speculation of a further rate hike by the ECB was likely to push the local unit towards the 3.01 level, versus the US dollar, next week.

The dealer said the greenback was also under pressure on the possibility the US may face a government shutdown following President Barack Obama and the Congress's failure to approve the Federal budget. 

However, the dollar could find some support next week as demand resumed for the safe haven after Thursday's earthquake in Japan, Portugal's budget deficit and the depreciation of the euro after its recent high. 

For the week just-ended, the market moved within a tight range, touching a high of 3.02 on Friday, but came off its highs on profit taking. 

The ringgit closed little changed versus the US dollar at 3.0215/0232, from the 3.0250/0260, recorded last Friday.

It depreciated against the Singapore dollar to 2.4034/4049, from 2.3977/3991 previously, but rose against the Japanese yen to 3.5455/5484 from last week's 3.6137/6166. 

The local unit was also lower against the British pound at 4.9565/9605, from 4.8506/8531 previously, and dipped against the euro to 4.3519/3549 from 4.2849/2872, last Friday. -- Bernama

Alasan mengapa manusia mengeluarkan airmata saat menguap

Jika kita menguap, maka otomatis kelenjar air mata mengeluarkan cairan lebih banyak. Itu terjadi karena pada saat kita menguap, terjadi penutupan kelopak mata disertai tekanan dan ada beberapa otot muka yang bergerak, salah satunya adalah otot-otot yang ada di sekitar mata kita. Gerakan otot ini menyebabkan tekanan pada kelenjar air mata dan menimbulkan gerakan seperti memeras kelopak mata. Akibat dari adanya tekanan dan gerakan ini, secara otomatis kelenjar air mata akan mengakibatkan kelenjar air mata lebih banyak berproduksi dan mensekresikan air mata yang bisa keluar setelah kita menguap.


Belum ada jawaban pasti mengapa manusia atau binatang menguap. Selama ini yang kita ketahui adalah bahwa manusia atau binatang menguap karena lelah atau bosan. Tapi tidak ada bukti kuat yang mendukung anggapan ini.

Tapi ada penjelasan yang lebih masuk akal tentang hal ini. Kita menguap karena kandungan oksigen dalam paru-paru kita sudah berkurang. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada saat kita bernafas normal, kita tidak menggunakan paru-paru pada secara penuh.

Di dalam paru-paru ada organ yang bernama alveoli, atau kantung udara. Alveoli ini berfungsi untuk mengalirkan oksigen ke dalam darah dan menyedot karbondioksida untuk kemudian dikeluarkan.

Jika alveoli tidak mendapatkan udara segar, dia akan kempis dan paru-paru agak mengeras. Otak kemudian segera bereaksi untuk memerintahkan mulut menguap dan menarik udara (oksigen).

Tetapi aspek-aspek tertentu dari menguap tetap merupakan misteri. Janin di dalam rahim, misalnya, juga menguap. Namum belum diketahui apakah memang janin menarik oksigen melalui paru-parunya. Menguap juga tampaknya merupakan gejala sklerosis ganda dengan sebab-sebab yang belum diketahui.

Heteroscedasticity

Heteroskedasticity (Value of Error Term Are Not Constant)

-Violates classical assumption 5, that errors have constant variance

(Var( i ) = σ2, ∀i )

-Not always realistic: if we put basketball players and mice into the

same dataset, most likely errors for basketball players would have

larger variance than errors for mice (if measured in the same units)

-Most likely to take place in cross-sectional models

-OLS estimates of ˆβ remain unbiased but have similar problems to
serial correlation









Example


A classic example of heteroscedasticity is that of income versus expenditure on meals. As one's income increases, the variability of food consumption will increase. A poorer person will spend a rather constant amount by always eating less expensive food; a wealthier person may occasionally buy inexpensive food and at other times eat expensive meals. Those with higher incomes display a greater variability of food consumption.




There are several methods to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity:


1) Park  test 
2) White test
3) Breusch-Pagan test


Remedies for heteroskedasticity



 1)  Weighted least squares
 2)  Heteroskedasticity-corrected standard errors
 3)  Redefining the variables




To Detect Heteroscedasticity:
     Plot  values of residual againts value of independent  variables..


Solution:
     Increase sample size data @ by  droping one of the highly correlated variables..

BNM maintains key rate, raises SRR to 2pc

As expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left borrowing costs unchanged at 2.75 per cent yesterday but raised the amount of money banks must keep at the central bank.

Starting in April, the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) will be doubled to 2 per cent.

It said that the decision to raise the SRR was to manage the risk of excess liquidity from large shifts in capital flows into the Asian region which would result in financial and macroeconomic imbalances.

In the case of Malaysia, the assessment is that the rise in liquidity in the domestic financial system has thus far been well-managed.

BNM also said the SRR is an instrument to manage liquidity and not a signal on the stance of monetary policy like the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR).

The SRR ratio was cut to 1 per cent in March 2009 from as high as 4 per cent in October 2008.

In its analysis of the domestic economy, the Monetary Policy Committee said there is growth in private consumption as well as business spending activities despite modest growth in exports.

While growth is expected to be moderate in the earlier part of the year, it is likely to improve during the course of the year, driven by strong expansion in domestic demand, led by private consumption.

"Private investment is also projected to strengthen, underpinned by the improving outlook for the domestic economy and further expansion of new growth industries."

HSBC Bank said BNM appears to be upbeat on domestic growth prospects.

"Even if external demand may still be relatively lacklustre in its view, the domestic side of things appears to be giving the central bank much comfort," remarked economists Wellian Wiranto and Namrata Mittal.

"With today's statement, it is quite clear that some form of response is coming fairly soon in the form of rate hikes ... not because of oil in and of its own, but due to uptick in demand to show how comfortable it is with domestic demand growth."

Inflation is not as urgent an issue here as elsewhere, but BNM is already hinting at the possibility of re-hiking again soon, shifting focus towards demand-pull forces. 

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Dr Chua Hak Bin expects the central bank to begin tightening from the next monetary policy meeting in May, when inflation climbs above 3 per cent.

"Another round of fuel price hikes may occur sooner to contain escalating fuel subsidy costs."

Chua also expects BNM to continue normalising the SRR, bringing the rate to 4 per cent by the year-end.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects a 50 basis points rate rise for the OPR this year to 3.25 per cent.







  *

Makna Bacaan Tahiyat Akhir

- Segala penghormatan yang berkat solat yang baik adalah untuk Allah.
- Sejahtera atas engkau wahai Nabi dan rahmat Allah serta keberkatannya.
- Sejahtera ke atas kami dan atas hamba-hamba ('ibaadi) Allah yang soleh.
- Aku naik saksi (Asyhadu) bahawa (an) tiada (laa) Tuhan (ilaaha) melainkan (illa )Allah dan aku naik saksi bahawasanya Muhammad itu adalah pesuruh Allah.
- Ya Tuhan kami, selawatkanlah ke atas Nabi Muhammad dan ke atas keluarganya.
- Sebagaimana Engkau selawatkan ke atas Ibrahim dan atas keluarga Ibrahim.
- Berkatilah ke atas Muhammad dan atas keluarganya sebagaimana Engkau berkati ke atas Ibrahim dan atas keluarga Ibrahim di dalam alam ini.
- Sesungguhnya Engkau Maha Terpuji lagi Maha Agung.